COVID-19 has triggered the deepest global recession in decades. There is a tiny part of data coming from a variety of shadow sources such as Internet gurus, unsigned reports and others. While the ultimate outcome is still uncertain, the pandemic will result in contractions across the vast majority of emerging market and developing economies. It is also critical to address the challenges posed by informality and limited safety nets and undertake reforms that enable strong and sustainable growth.The rapid rise of COVID-19 cases, together with the wide range of measures to slow the spread of the virus, has slowed economic activity precipitously in many EMDEs.
Iran is expected to contract 5.3%, the third year of contraction in a row. Participants in the informal sector—workers and small enterprises—are often not registered with the government and hence have no access to government benefits. Unconditional support programs would be advisable in many EMDEs. Many countries have avoided more adverse outcomes through sizable fiscal and monetary policy support measures. Beyond its short-term impact, deep recessions triggered by the pandemic are likely to leave lasting scars through multiple channels, including lower investment; erosion of the human capital of the unemployed; and a retreat from global trade and supply linkages. COVID-19 has delivered an enormous global shock, leading to steep recessions in many countries. In addition, a comprehensive reform drive is needed to reduce the adverse impact of the pandemic on long-term growth prospects by improving governance and business environments, and expanding investment in education and public health. In addition to discussing global and regional prospects, this edition includes several pieces on topical issues facing emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), including the challenges associated with the presence of large informal sectors, the prospects for continued low inflation, rising debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries, and the implications of large food price spikes for poverty. The baseline forecast envisions a 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP in 2020—the deepest global recession in decades. Click on the button to download data into Excel. Global coordination and cooperation will be critical.
Once the crisis abates, it will be necessary to reaffirm a credible commitment to sustainable policies and undertake the reforms necessary to buttress long-term prospects. Growth forecasts for all regions have been severely downgraded. The gradual nature of forecast downgrades in previous global recessions suggests that further downgrades may be in store as forecasters absorb new information about the evolution of the pandemic. Output of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to contract in 2020 for the first time in at least 60 years. Immediate policy measures should support health care systems and moderate the short-term impact of the pandemic on activity and employment.
World Development Indicators (WDI) is the primary World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized international sources. Financial market pressures and trade tensions could escalate, denting global activity.An insight into the Italian economy from an analysis based on the industrial production index in both frequency and time domainsDoes governance quality promote innovation in sub-Saharan Africa?
In India, growth is estimated to have slowed to 4.2% in FY 2019/20, which ended in March 2020. Output is projected to contract by 3.2% in FY 2020/21, when the impact of the pandemic will largely hit. COVID-19 has triggered the deepest global recession in decades. The immediate policy priorities are to alleviate the human costs and attenuate the near-term economic losses.
Energy and metals commodities are the most affected by the sudden stop to economic activity. South Africa’s output is forecast to contract 7.1% this year, the deepest contraction in a century, as stringent but necessary containment measures curtail economic activity. COVID-19 will take an especially heavy humanitarian and economic toll on emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) with large informal sectors.
Figures are based on official exchange rates, not on the purchasing power parity (PPP) methodology. The impact is likely to be particularly severe on women, due to their outsized participation in sectors that are more affected by the pandemic. Economic disruptions are likely to be more severe and protracted in those countries with larger domestic outbreaks, greater exposure to international spillovers (particularly through exposure to global commodity and financial markets, global value chains, and tourism), and larger pre-existing challenges such as informality. Read More » Economic activity in the rest of East Asia and Pacific is forecast to contract by 1.2 percent in 2020 before rebounding to 5.4 percent in 2021. As such, additional policy measures to support activity may be needed in the coming months. Those EMDEs that have weak health systems; those that rely heavily on global trade, tourism, or remittances from abroad; and those that depend on commodity exports will be particularly hard-hit. Among major economies of the region, Malaysia (-3.1%), the Philippines (-1.9%), and Thailand (-5%) are forecast to experience the biggest contractions this year.